Dizzying Developments

By Charlie Johnston Late in the colorful baseball career of pitcher Dizzy Dean, a reporter remarked that he wasn’t throwing as hard as he did when he was younger. Dean indignantly responded that he was throwing as hard as he ever did; it just wasn’t getting there as fast. In normal times, I’m pretty good […]

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The First Black Swan of the Season

By Charlie Johnston Whenever there is a sudden paradigm shift in electoral patterns – something that goes dramatically contrary to previous patterns – you need to determine whether it is a fluke or a real shift. If it is merely a fluke, you can safely return to traditional analytical models. If it is a genuine […]

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