The Emerging New World Order

By Charlie Johnston

The candidate whose campaign I was managing, Kat Wall, was defeated in her bid to oust a liberal Republican incumbent on Tuesday, March 3.  In the process, though, she helped spark and add to a vitally important reform movement in Texas.

Two very bright spots happened on that Tuesday night.

 My old family friend, Don Huffines, won his bid for comptroller of Texas. The Comptroller of Texas is, by far, the most powerful comptroller in any state I have been involved in. The Texas Comptroller does not just count how the state’s money is spent; he has a big role in deciding how it is spent or whether it can be spent at all. Four years ago, Huffines only got 12% in a Republican primary for governor. That was deeply disappointing for him. But he established his bona fides as the figure most committed to guarding the taxpayers’ money. I thought – and told him and his wife then – that this would serve him very well going forward. This time the Republican establishment had the long knives out for him. But all the king’s horses and all the king’s men could not stop him. Huffines won against two other opponents with 58% of the vote. He is a serious and committed reformer. I personally think he is the man most likely to become Texas Governor in four years.

The execrable Congressman Dan Crenshaw was defeated by actual conservative State Representative Steve Toth. Crenshaw was the poster boy for the deception in Texas politics. He campaigned and won as a conservative in 2018. As time went on he became an ill-tempered liberal who still claimed to be a conservative. He has long been contemptuously called “Eyepatch McCain” by conservatives.

In other states, if I am looking at a liberal group, they make it obvious. In Texas, if a group wants to mutilate childrens’ genitals, push DEI and transgender ideology, and tax everything that moves, they call themselves things like the Texas Defense Fund or the Lone Star Conservative Action PAC. This is how a genuinely conservative state gets saddled with a genuinely purple legislature. The Democrats here are almost as loony as everywhere else in the country. The Republican establishment is much more insidious. They talk conservative to beguile the folksies, but are only focused on jobs, contracts, and money for themselves – and getting more.

I liken the situation of Texas to that of Detroit in the mid and late ‘60s. It may be hard for younger folks to believe, but at that time it was one of the best run, most prosperous cities in the country. Officials there started justifying all manner of stupid policy choices and enriching themselves at the expense of citizens by proclaiming, “Hey, we’re Detroit, Nothing can ever go wrong here.” By 1972, Detroit had become a hellhole and went down from there. Last session, the Texas legislature increased state spending by over 40 percent. It ignored critical, longstanding infrastructure needs, including basic water availability, while sending $2.5 BILLION in subsidies to Hollywood companies. Not tax abatements, but actual subsidies. It also spent $4.2 BILLION on the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment or BEAD, program. This was a program started with $42 billion of federal money in 2023 by the Biden Adminizstration, ostensibly to hook up underserved communities to broadband internet. Three years later, not a single person has been actually hooked up to the internet through the program. Makes for a great slush fund for politicians, though.

If Texas actually fell, we would not have enough oomph to stop the malignant authoritarian takeover modern Democrats are so determined to have. We need a genuinely strong Texas rather than an apparently strong one to fortify America. We need a genuinely strong America to rescue, reclaim, and re-cultivate Western Culture.

I am now a dual resident of Texas and Colorado and am collaborating with the reform elements in the state to make Texas red, for real. My former candidate is committed to developing real answers to real problems – and I will have the pleasure of helping. Don’t get me wrong. I am working now to re-establish balance in my life after the intense, frenzied, all-in effort of a hotly contested campaign. I will be giving talks again and devoting serious time to CORAC needs and goals that had been put on the back burner for a time. I have just added another key priority to my plate. All are designed to spark a revival of genuine faith, committed to family, community, and freedom.

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When fundamental paradigms shift, both analysis and assessment get very difficult. Back in the day, one of the gifts I brought to the political table among colleagues was that based on what they said and what they did, I could predict what opponents and the opposing party were going to do with eerie precision. That started degrading during Bill Clinton’s term and was largely lost after the first year of Barack Obama’s term.

People and entities use smokescreens and misdirection to try to camouflage their fundamental goals and strategy. Given consistent predicates in speech and action, inductive reasoning allows one to cut through the smokescreens and see a likely course that is to follow. Actions and speech portend certain ends if you can cut through the camouflage. Inductive reasoning does not give certainty to analysis, but it gives a very high degree of accuracy, depending on the skill of the practitioner.

Again, back in the day, the Democratic Party was a rational actor. I often thought it was errant, but it was understandable and its goals could be discerned along with the strategies and tactics it would use to get there. I have always worked from the standpoint of “first things:” when you strip away all the fluff and stuff, what remains – and what does it signify?

I didn’t lose my analytical prowess. Rather, beginning with Clinton the rational basis for policy choices started fraying. It was obliterated by Obama. So I was caught for a time using old predicates and assumptions that no longer applied. The Democrats became, increasingly, an anti-rational party. Now, most of the major things they do have a profoundly nihilistic root. When analyzing them, I regard them as a party of appetites rather than a party of ideas. All political parties want power – and the balance between the will to power and the will to service lends tension and drama to events. If the mix is healthy, it also lends meaning to what the political actors try to achieve. Institutionally, the Democrats have stripped meaning from the equation. All they want is power – and everything they do is designed to segment the electorate in manners to achieve that. All their pronouncements, their faux compassion, their false accusations, their efforts to weaponize law and the justice system as mere partisan tools for leverage are designed to gain and hold power for power’s sake. Having rejected any belief in or commitment to a power greater than themselves, power is their only source of meaning, an impoverished and bankrupt blend of self-actualization and validation. As angry as I get at the modern left, I pity them more. They have put themselves in a lose-lose proposition. When they lose, they are frustrated and filled with rage. When they prevail, they are frustrated and filled with rage that people and things do not develop as they thought and demand – and they frantically twist themselves into knots trying to transmogrify obvious failure into a bizarre definition of success. They are like the kid who stumbles over his own feet and proclaims, “I meant to do that.”

Wed to this intellectual train to nowhere is a farcically grotesque series of “beliefs” that deny human nature, human history, and reality, itself. Some of the proponents actually believe them, but the majority just use them as a wedge against faith, family, and freedom. Nihilism in action. These are not your father’s Democrats in the same way that a neutron bomb is not your father’s Oldsmobile. The left has become a malignant, Monty Pythonesque parody of political philosophy.

In a future piece I will write about the upcoming midterms. It is not, primarily, a referendum on either Republicans or Democrats. Rather, it is a test of whether we, as a people, retain the political sophistication, intellectual rigor, and resolve to see that a nation so conceived and so dedicated as ours in can long endure. Privately, I think of it as the Gettysburg election.

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We are in the midst of the biggest, quickest, global paradigm shift in world history. There is a quickly emerging new world order (though it is not the one the left and the globalists were hoping for). Even more astonishingly, a single figure, Donald Trump, has conceived and is decisively and successfully forging this blossoming order in real time before our very eyes.

The center of gravity for individual liberty, opportunity, and collective security is shifting away from the cultural west (the US and Europe) to the Western Hemisphere. Globalism is being supplanted by a healthy, vibrant nationalism that encourages each nation to use its strength to be the best version of itself while collaborating positively with its neighbors. It started with the simple slogan, “Make America Great Again.” Despite leftist complaints, it was never xenophobic or an attempt at rank triumphalism. From the start, Trump encouraged allies to do their own version (Make Argentina Great Again, Make Italy Great Again, Make Japan Great Again). It has always been about preserving each nation’s culture while forging strong alliances among them based on the commitment to common values on the dignity of the human person, his proper autonomy, and the need for healthy, productive communities that offer people opportunity, order, and transcendently overt faith.

The globalists imagined a vast garden with only one type of flower – and the suppression and punishment of any who dissented. This was exemplified in the execrable Klaus Schwab’s proclamation that, “You will own nothing and you will be happy!” from his former perch as head of the now largely and increasingly irrelevant World Economic Forum. They demanded uniformity in submission to their idiosyncratic vision of the good – and called it “diversity.” But God likes to have lots of distinctive flowers in His garden. He does not want to force a daisy to try to be a feeble imitation of a rose, but to be a robust, distinctive daisy – in the same garden with the roses…and tulips…and orchids. Ironic that the left insisted on uniformity while falsely calling it diversity and Trump is now encouraging substantive diversity among the nations, united in service to a common, moral foundation.

In rearranging the global board, Trump is systematically tackling chronic problems and threats to the peace of nations. For five decades Iran has been the greatest state sponsor of terror in the world. It is – and will be – no longer. In its aspirations to be the single, Godless hegemon of the world, China has been the greatest threat to world stability and peace in the world. Every action Trump takes weakens China, which is being reduced to a paper dragon. It is being denied the energy it needs to hope to project power. The action in Iran revealed the uselessness of much of its “sophisticated” military technology. The Islamic Regime was protected almost exclusively by Chinese anti-aircraft defense systems – which the American military cut through like paper. Iran would have been better off using slingshots: equally ineffective against American military power but much less expensive. China’s economy is increasingly being exposed as the Potemkin Village it has long been. Just two years ago, China was plotting to be the dominant force in the world. Now its regime is desperately trying to survive. The CCP has lost the “mandate of Heaven” and is in serious danger of toppling.

The post-World War II order is rapidly being shed like the old, dead skin of a moulting lizard. Only the trappings of its 80-year-reign remain. We are not going back to some previous world system of order. That’s not how things work. Nineteenth century America was a regional, second-tier power. It emerged as a global power in World War I. The period between WWI and WWII was a period of transition. WWII cemented America as the single most dominant power on the globe – and the leader of the community of nations which constituted western civilization. With most of Europe deeply enfeebled after WWII, the United States undertook to take the lead in rebuilding it – and effectively subsidizing it while it healed. That was a noble endeavor.

But it devolved into the global equivalent of a Somali Daycare scam. When your minor children are economically dependent on you and you direct their course, that is healthy and nurturing. When your 20-somethings do the same thing, that is a destructive co-dependency. The subsidizing of those nations broken in WWII should have ended sometime late in the Eisenhower or early in the Kennedy administration. Instead, those nations we intended to help get back on their feet continued their dependency on us even as they sought to direct our course. It had to end. Reagan was the last really successful president of the old world order. Between him and Trump 47 it has been a period of transition away from the old and toward whatever would come next. We have exited the old world order, much to the howls and complaints of those who had gamed and played us for so long. We still can’t see the precise contours of the new – but the scaffolding is visible as it is under construction in real time.

As I noted in the previous segment, when a major paradigm shift comes, good analysis gets very difficult for a time. That is largely because otherwise good analysts are still using old assumptions and predicates that no longer apply.

Our reader, Usnlt76, is a man I much respect. I have met with him before, even went to a baseball game with him. He knows military procedure and strategy. In the comments section of my last piece he raised several serious questions about our war with the Iranian mullahs. I disagree with his conclusions – but I think he came to them because he has embedded many old assumptions that no longer apply into his thinking.

First, regime change does not mean the same thing to Trump as it has meant to the last 80 years’ worth of American leaders. Trump will act to defang or eliminate dangerously hostile regimes, but he is not interested in occupying the foreign lands affected or installing a puppet leader beholden to the US. Rather, he seeks to liberate captive people from regimes actively trying to do us damage and only dominating their internal systems long enough for the native people to make a free choice. The new leadership of those nations who have a regime toppled is the nation’s problem and prerogative, not ours. It comes after a decisive showing of how we respond to regimes that try to harm Americans or seriously harm American interests. That is a powerful incentive for whatever leadership the people of the nation choose to be neighborly, even while retaining their autonomy and moral agency. The only refinery we destroyed in Iran was primarily a fuel and ammunition depot for the use of the regime. We have not touched Kharg Island, Iran’s major oil export terminal. We may seize control of it for a time until new leadership in Iran establishes stability. But we will not keep it, anymore than we did Venezuela’s. Instead, Venezuela is blossoming anew and its oil capacity is being used to help rebuild the country and its economy. Contrary to what all the “experts” predicted, Venezuelan oil exports have nearly doubled in the couple of months since we arrested Maduros. I expect the same thing to happen in Iran.

Under Trump, regime change is not a situation in which the US controls everything into the foreseeable future – a practice that only compounded our problems and our enemies, sprouting the weeds of “forever” wars. Trump will only exert control or influence long enough for a local structure to emerge – and will only act against it if it acts against our interests. Meantime, he has prepared for most contingencies that might arise and acts quickly and decisively to quash them. Early this week, the left (and much of the right) was in a panic about spiking oil prices. They did not spike because Iran was able to close the strait of Hormuz; they spiked because Lloyd’s of London announced it would not issue any maritime insurance to ships transiting those straits. That completely shut down traffic in the straits for a day. But Trump responded fine, if you won’t insure them the United States will. Lo and behold, the very next day Lloyd’s decided it would work with the US to insure maritime traffic in the straits after all. It did not want to risk its 400-year-old dominance of maritime insurance. The old assumptions are dead. Analysis must seek to recognize the contours of the new rather than trying to superimpose old predicates that no longer apply.

While at a gas station Monday, the young woman at the pump next to me expressed dismay at the price spike. I chuckled and told her that these terrible gas prices were still 40 cents lower than what I paid for most of the Biden administration – which the media said was a wonderful thing. And I told her not to worry – that the prices we were paying that day would be the worst of the week. They would almost immediately start coming back down. And so it has happened.

I take much satisfaction in seeing specifics I had predicted from what I believe to be supernatural inspiration emerging from the fog of current events. Of course, the central premise of what I had predicted was that a great storm was coming upon the world; that it was a storm of renewal, not of destruction; and that what it would most resemble would be a global civil war fought on cultural lines. A decade ago, many were upset because what I spoke of was so unimaginable and frightening that they considered it irresponsible and alarmist of me to say it. Now it has clearly come to pass. The only thing anyone doubts anymore is whether it is for renewal or for destruction. Now the main people upset with me are those who want to see prophecy as a form of fireworks show – constant stimulation with ever new bursts. It’s just a very old form of engagement trolling.  I said what I had to say and that was sufficient. I have NO interest in tickling peoples’ ears with hair-raising tales of how the Antichrist is right around the corner (a consistent theme of dime store prophets for 2,000 years. Eventually it will be right – but not yet) or keeping people thrilled with frightening details about how terrible things are going to be and how those other impious folks we don’t like are going to get it while we stay safely protected like babes in their Fathers arms. It completely ignores God’s command that we are to be His instruments, His hands and feet as St. Teresa of Avila put it, on this earth. We are to go forth and call people back to God effectively, risking grave danger in this life to help accomplish our Father’s will. Though I always knew it would come as the Storm started to end, it dismays me to watch in real time as people I have respected get progressively more unhinged.

So what are the things I have spoken consistently of since before I went public as indicators that the Storm has gone into resolution phase? Just four things I want to mention now:

  • That Islam would fall far more quickly and easily than anyone imagined once we in America took it seriously and confronted it boldly. But it would continue to spread its terror and violence until we did. Trump takes it seriously and is confronting it – and most all of the Middle Eastern Arab countries are making common cause with America and Israel to confront Iran. (I wish some of our erstwhile “conservatives” were doing a smidgen of what, say, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are doing to stop Jihadist terror).
  • That after it was defanged, Jihadist Islam would reconstitute in Europe, from which the final battle over it would be fought. I was partially errant about this. Islam started reconstituting in Europe well before it was confronted in the Middle East.
  • That China, driven by the Chinese Communist Party, was the devil’s main tool in these times…that it would have to be confronted and subdued before we could reconstitute the faith and face of the world. It is now happening in real time because of Trump’s boldness.
  • That the Storm would not be fully dissipated until Russia and the US were the closest of allies, working to restore order in the world and to unite the eastern and western wings of Christianity. That was blocked in Trump’s first term by the pernicious Russian collusion hoax, but it is slowly emerging as reality now. I think – but do not know – that much of Europe will fall completely to Jihadi Islam…and in the end, the US and Russia will combine to liberate it and make the Jihadi threat a matter of receding history.

I am dismayed at the number of “conservatives” who are ready to run for the hills as soon as it gets even a little tough or real risk is involved. I am also gratified to see it, for it reveals to all of us who we can count on and which people are just pompous blowhards. Most of all I am delighted to see in ongoing world events the contours of the world as I have seen it progressing for most of my life. We are, by no means, out of the woods yet – but we are on our way out rather than on our way in now. The emerging new world order will have some serious birthing pains before it is finished…certainly a lot more serious than a couple day spike in gas prices as the cost of ending a half century old problem. But for those who watch with eyes that see more than the conventional same old, same old, this clearly is NOT the end. It is, in fact, the beginning of a new beginning. Meditate on the Ascension to give you deeper insight into where we are headed.

 

If communication goes out for any length of time, meet outside your local Church at 9 a.m. on Saturday mornings. Tell friends at Church now in case you can’t then. CORAC teams will be out looking for people to gather in and work with.

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37 thoughts on “The Emerging New World Order

  1. Oh how I love this piece! Your thoughts, analysis and insights ring true, Charlie.  My heart has been singing the praises of the Lord for the mitigation unfolding before us as Trump and his teams have moved forward with dismantling the ugly workings of the deep state globalists.  Aslan is so on the move in the conversions happening all over the world.  What a privilege to be alive and to be tending to people who have heard God calling in this night known as the Storm.  Mighty grateful to be reading you again, Charlie!

    Liked by 4 people

  2. Great insights here! Thank you, Charlie, for setting it straight about what Trump is doing. The Jihadis with their nuclear capabilities needs to be routed for good! Praying for our good President to see this through! (That and the SAVE Act!)

    Liked by 4 people

  3. Thanks, Charlie, for your insight on the current geopolitical situation and the parallelism and connection with your supernatural intuitions.

    That is very interesting. I hope we may begin to see improvements in Italy and Europe too.

    Liked by 3 people

  4. the Iran war (or not war as they claim) doesn’t seem to be going well. The guard doesn’t have a central command it seems (like Pentagon) and they have an array of resources to continue to fight to drain the US. Desalination plants, other infrastructure. Our gov has been caught lying about the dead and blowing a girls school. All while Bibi boasts about becoming a global superpower and being around until “thee messiah comes”. This greater Israel project isn’t a secret anymore and their ultimate goal. Gaza is razed, Lebanon churches also bombed and that priest killed. Israel clearly isn’t the good guy many believed. Here Trump and his DOJ are the toothless tigers. Epstein, which he resisted to the end, has decimated the MAGA movement and will cost the midterms. It’s chaos all around.

    Liked by 1 person

      1. Good account? It was pretty clear propaganda against the Times. Not one mention of what Hegseth or even Trump said about the tomahawk (which is our missile btw), and no one denies that. And for the record, I have no delusions about NYT as some fair accounting paper. Everything I mentioned in my comment is fact and can easily be shown.

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        1. To the contrary, Lou, it is not established that this was a US missile. It is only the Times’ repeated assertion. Jeff Childers covers this pretty well and in-depth in his column today.

          I say, that even if this was an accident by the US, the reality is there is unintended collateral damage in every war. If you are going to decide that the only acceptable rules of engagement are that there must never be any collateral damage, then we might as well just give up, give tyrants the globe, and be done with it – hoping that the tyrranical crocodile will eat us last.

          Everything you mentioned in your comment is NOT fact. Much of it are assertions you assert are facts, without compelling evidence.

          Giving the Islamic Regime a pass and suggesting we should just let a regime that just murdered 30,000 of its own people for protesting is an argument. But I think it is an argument that has lost its moral compass – particularly if the only way we can resist is by doing what no military operation in history has ever been able to achieve before.

          Liked by 2 people

          1. Gaza has been leveled. Israel did bomb church(es) in Lebanon and killed the priest (his name escapes me atm). Iran has taken out a desalination plant and other targets and infrastructure in the gulf countries. Bibi was on video saying what I mentioned above about greater Israel goals. His superpower comment and “until their messiah comes” line were said on video this week. Trump avoiding Epstein issue and insulting his base for not letting it go is pretty well documented also. The fact that it was a tomahawk missile has been noted by several military sources also. Tomahawks are our baby.

            I wasn’t debating collateral damage. That argument is easy to make though when it’s not our children. If Iran, or Iraq or Afghanistan or whoever, did that to one of our schools would we be so easy to write it off? “Well, that’s the dirty nature of war”? It’s the same line used when Israel killed tens of thousands (by their own numbers) of civilians. That doesn’t mean I support Hamas either. Iran regime did kill tens of thousands of their own people.
            This war was one of choice, not necessity. We bombed them 8 months ago. Took out their nuke capability allegedly. The justification and reasons now for this change by the day… by the administration, and not the Times.

            Like

  5. A very timely piece indeed. When so many losing faith in what is being accomplished. “A SIGN OF HOPE” amidst the fog of war. All are being tested during this turbulent period. God Bless you Charlie for bringing this message to all the knee Knockers. I needed this as well, Jim C.

    Liked by 2 people

  6. Thank you Charlie for this wonderful piece and sign of hope! I really needed this sign of hope as the rot continues to get exposed!!!

    I’ve just been crying so much these days for my own sins of the past (present and future) lol 😂 and for all the little children and young people that have been trafficked since the Epstein thing came out, fr rippergers podcast with Shawn Ryan …I just can’t believe how bad the world has become!!!

    Maybe it was always this way and I didn’t realize it! I guess I should’ve. Long ago my best friend Kelly and I were like 10 years old and doing plaster Paris at like 1 am on our backyard screened in porch! I was facing the alley so I saw this big truck going by and then it stopped! Then a man was coming towards our porch…he was trying not to be seen, crouching… but I saw him! I screamed for Kelly to run with me into the back kitchen and then we bolted the kitchen door! Thinking back, I should’ve alerted my parents, but we weren’t supposed to be out on the screened-in back porch doing holly hobby plaster Paris so I thought we’d be in big trouble!!! We got in bigger trouble than I realized at the time and I still thank God and our guardian angels today that that creepy guy didn’t succeed! Whew 😅 😂😂😂

    My little brother Hank almost got abducted when we lived in Maryland (thankfully we only lived in reisterstown Maryland for a year) and some kids set our hay fort on fire in the field behind our apartment while we were inside of it! The whole darn hayfield burnt down! So many firetrucks! lol 😂 Those are just a few things that happened to us through the years so really I shouldn’t be so surprised 😳 that was in the 60s, and early 70s!

    I’m glad everything is getting exposed! I pray that everyone chooses God!

    What crazy times!

    Charlie, on a personal note I’m so happy that you are working again a little bit in politics!!! Boy oh boy that Really is your thing and you are so good at it!!! Thanks be to God for people like yourself and for the MAGA movement!!! I’m not tired of wining yet!!! lol 😂 President Trump keeps hinting at a third term!!! 😂 can’t wait to see what he’s got up his sleeve!

    Thank you again, Charlie!!! You stay well my friend!!!

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Hi dear Linda! What you said about things “getting exposed” is a huge theme of God’s right now, IMHO! 🙂 I pray for that every day.

      So glad to get all this analysis, Charlie! Yes, it gives us hope that things are moving in the right direction; it’s just hard to be patient and not curious about what will happen in my family and where everyone will be, with most of our kids not close at all.

      So thanks for this brilliant piece, Charlie.

      Liked by 1 person

  7. Thank you for sharing this insight. I am no expert as to geopolitical matters, but I do see something of great significance in our nation. Families are being torn apart through the wiles of the evil one-pornography, substance addiction, codependency, all the while, children’s souls are crying out in pain and desperation. I can see it in the countenance of the students’ faces. I am praying for this generation of children in particular, to be restored and healed. To me, it seems that this is also a large part of the storm that we are experiencing. Charlie—can you provide insight about the spiritual health of our nation?

    Liked by 3 people

  8. Challenge accepted;) Perhaps the assumptions driving my skepticism are wrong, so I will examine them more closely. I will say that my skepticism is not with the broad strategic directions I’ll mention below and that Charlie noted above, but with the tactical wisdom of the invasion as executed.

    My favorite piece on the topic of world orders comes from John Mearsheimer: Microsoft Word – Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order.July 26, 2018.doc

    In brief, he states that the world order since the fall of USSR has been international, unipolar and ideological (of the liberal democracy type). He also argues that this is not sustainable, and indeed that we are moving into another world order (the specifics of which are not settled). There are a few possibilities: 1.) Unipolar and “agnostic”, meaning pragmatic or non-ideological under the US as the unipole. In this order, the US remains the dominant power but shifts to a more pragmatic approach. To me, this is what Trump and his administration seek. Mearsheimer would consider this to be more sustainable than an ideological order because it doesn’t exhaust itself trying to create mini-USA’s all over the world. It seems that the Trump admin is acting with the goal to break the rise of China; in this I agree with Charlie. Maduro was about China; Iran is about China. China has huge influence over rare earths and an industrial advantage, so the US is trying to lever energy against them, among other things. There is also a clear difference between removing Maduro and the Bush-era ideological regime change projects. Trump didn’t really try to change Venezuela’s system, just remove an impediment to its prosperity. I think Trump is clearly a realist. 2.) If China catches up enough, we will have a bipolar order that is unavoidably realist. USA and China will each have its sphere of influence, kind of splitting the world like the old USSR-West rivalry. 3.) Multipolar order with US, China and one or more others close enough to have constantly changing alliances and quite an amount of instability. 4.) Unipolar order with someone other than the US dominant.

    In my view, if Trump is successful in this gambit we will have #1. If not, it’s hard to say but most likely #2 or 3 for a time. I have also long agreed that the US needs to get better allied with Russia to counter China, whether or not Europe likes it. I think Russia’s current alignment with Iran is a pragmatic one and will not last if Russia gets better options.

    Where does my skepticism come from then? 1.) I think the hope was to have Iran be like Venezuela. Take out the regime and let pragmatists take over. However, I think it is less likely to work. Venezuela is a rich country but not really an ideological one. I think most of the government really want to have prosperity again. Maduro’s VP is a pragmatist who will work with Trump. Iran is a tribalized, decentralized theocracy that has dug its heels in for 45 years. It’s much more than taking out one guy, and even if all of the regime leaders are killed (hard to do) it may just degenerate into a fragmented civil war zone. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but I think it would require boots on the ground and maybe lots of them, and that would be a slog. Even though many Iranians want a new regime, it’s going to be hard to dislodge this apocalyptic one. How far is the US willing to go for this? Full invasion? Just be satisfied degrading much of Iran’s ability to export chaos? Seize control of their economy by capturing oil terminals? Even if we decide to forego invasion and back off, will Iran just keep at it? My assumption here is that this regime will be harder to take out than the other ones in the Middle East, and we don’t have a great track record with those either. Could be I’m wrong and they fold in the next month. We will see.

    2.) My tactical skepticism is around munitions and power projection. I will be the first to admit that I don’t know exactly how many missiles, mines and drones Iran has vs. how many defensive missile systems we have. It appears to be a race to take out their launch capacity before our expensive Patriot and THAAD munitions run out. I think it will be a close one, and if we can’t take out their launch capacity for a long time, we need to be prepared for our Gulf allies taking lots more damage than they’re used to, causing substantial economic harm. It’s also hard to project power in general, especially doing so without exhausting your capability elsewhere. The Chairman of the JCS was also advising that we weren’t prepared for this level of engagement. Can we recover and push through?

    3.) Economics. We need to return the Strait of Hormuz to normalcy, somehow. Hopefully we can soon. Hopefully #2 above is successful too, but it’s hard to predict 2nd and 3rd order effects of complex systems when you introduce major logistical uncertainties. I just know we need to manage consequences that are hard to predict.

    Some of my questioning of what the Trump admin is trying to do comes from listening too much to what Trump is actually saying. I suspect the strategy is to neutralize China, but the admin has been all over the place in actually articulating anything like this. It doesn’t inspire confidence that they have things together. Maybe they do and it will be a pleasant surprise. Maybe secular analysis goes out the window and God will realize His will sooner than later through some very confused and confused-sounding humans.

    Despite my skepticism about the chance of tactical success in Iran (based on past adventures), I also have to account for the certainty that in the end the will of God prevails, and it may be messy. Through this I’ve not suddenly become a fan of Kamala Harris or the Leftists who most definitely love war as long as it’s not Trump waging it. They’d also love cancer if Trump cured it. In general, I do favor the realist approach over the ideological wars of attrition that just seek to create more globalist vassals. In the end we will just all have to see how this plays out and react accordingly, without losing faith or heart that God’s will for us individually and for the world will be realized.

    -Lake

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    1. I hope I did not give the impression I have anything but respect for your thinking and analytical ability, Usnlt76. I have great respect for it. It is, in fact, because of that respect. On the rare occasions we disagree, I want to go back and see why – because I need to check my suppositions.

      The one thing I would disagree with here is that you say Trump should be more clear and precise. If it is for an internal military briefing, I heartily agree. But the heart of politics and diplomacy requires often that you conceal and misdirect on your actual objectives. So I consider that a feature, rather than a bug of Trump’s public pronouncements. BUT…when you talk on these things, I listen because I know you very well to be a serious man. In this case, we just have different conclusions.

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      1. No offense taken at all, I appreciate honest debate and the opportunity to recalibrate. I do sometimes get caught up in a train of thought at the level of tactic, confirmation bias and becoming too confident in conclusions based on very uncertain information. I and all of us I guess don’t really know much except a small part of what’s really happening and how it fits the big picture, which I suppose is why we must trust God. I also can’t discount a certain amount of grumpiness, apprehension and lack of excitement at the prospect of some of the things that probably must come to recalibrate the world. Back again to trusting and the next right step …

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        1. This is one of the reasons I have such high regard for you, Usnlt76. When I was reading your original comment I thought to myself, “I think he is focusing too much on the tactical element at the expense of the strategic.” You know that nine out of ten would not even know the difference. One of the things that has always built strong relations with my colleagues is my candid recognition of my own sometimes flawed tendencies. That candor and precision in thinking builds confidence among your peers.

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  9. I hesitate to put myself up against Charlie and USNLT76YAHOOCOM, but here goes anyway:

    First, it appears that the missile picture is good enough for the elements of the missile structure to be actually measured. I cannot verify that, but perhaps USNLT76YAHOOCOM can. Here is the link to one guy who did the measures and examined the profile of the flight and states clearly that the missile was a Shahed-55, not a tomahawk, and his comment has links to various analyses:

    https://x.com/PersianGodddd/status/2031108289338159357?s=20

    Second, Trump regularly uses misdirection and inflammatory language and other tactics to get those working against him to act in certain ways. For example, most people think Trump mishandled the Epstein file release, but he most emphatically did not. If he had released all of them on his own, the Left would have ignored the material and called him out for engaging in political vengeance. By acting like he thought it was a hoax and allowing rumors that he was in the files, he got the Democrats and the Left to commit a form of political and moral hara-kiri. They ended up *demanding* that those files be released NOW, and the Dems in Congress combined with Republicans to pass a bipartisan law to force their release. They will rue the day they let Trump manipulate them yet again.

    Third, and this is in my opinion really the crux of the matter with relation to Iran. The rest of the world (often deliberately with evil intent) has allowed a monstrous regime to dig itself into an almost impregnable position that enhances its ability to satisfy its prime directive. They are an apocalyptic group of religious fanatics who believe that they are to be the instrument that will trigger worldwide chaos in order to get the 12th Imam to rise up out of his well in Qom and make the entire world Islamic (or what is left, that is). They have also repeatedly satisfied their immediate appetite for power and money on the backs of their own people and with the evil connivance of the most psychopathic political groups and individuals around the world.

    You can tell how important this evil regime is to the psychopaths who have ruled our world for many decades and centuries by the incredibly broad coalition of institutions that, and individuals who, are doing their best to undermine the Administration and force an end to this war before it can conclude appropriately.

    Obviously, we need to make the best plans we can, and we need to execute in the best way we can, to reduce collateral damage and effectively take out this enemy. It is nonetheless required of us that we pay the much-postponed price inherent in taking this regime out. Nothing else matters when you come right down to it.

    It simply has to be done.

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    1. I think this is solid analysis, Steve. I was familiar with the evidence that this was an Iranian missile and had seen the post you link to here. I am glad you did. It was also included in the Childers link I posted. I will admit I was a bit curious as to how many would actually look at it and see it, particularly Lou, who claimed his assertions to be nothing but facts. I think I know who Lou is – and if it is him, he was a mighty fine fellow for a good while, but lost heart a few years back. I weas hoping to shock him out of the black-pilling he seems to have ingested. Despite his contentious response to my rebuke, if he is who I think he is, he is a better man than he came off as here.

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      1. hey Charlie, I think I am who you think I am. Thank you for the kind words, at least of who I was. I did lose heart years ago, but was granted it back by the merciful Lord since then.
        As for my blackpilling, it is true that I have come to see propaganda on both ends of the spectrum. Covid took care of that. And maybe Trump is playing the now infamous 4D chess as several here have asserted in their own way. Misdirection etc while others try to decipher the true, hidden motives.

        I still read this blog to get your perspective because of the respect I hold for you. You are humble enough to admit when you’ve found yourself to be wrong on a matter. I still have an email you sent me during a difficult time where the advice got me through. So I hope my disagreement isn’t misconstrued. While I strongly disagree on matters discussed, the points above I still hold aren’t much in dispute, what the dots noted mean Im well aware are.
        I also know that a big perspective gap I’ve seen is a generational one. This has held true in conversations and X. I think this gap will certainly play out in the midterms, but time will tell.
        God bless you Charlie and all here.

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        1. Ah yes, now I know you are who I thought you are. I am so thankful you have found new heart. You were a very good man and I enjoyed our visits, both in person and online. God bless and keep you.

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      2. I’m sorry to hear that about Lou. If it’s any help to him, my own outlook is becoming increasingly optimistic, even euphoric, about what is coming after the chaotic times of 2026 and 2027. Absolute Awesomeness is coming if we all hang in there for a little while longer.

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  10. I hope Charlie you’re right…. But we all were hopeful even about about our recents popes. It turned out the other way… Peace brought by USA to Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan to fight those regimes and bring democracy didn’t end well. If USA were not able to manage much weaker Afghanistan with troops on the ground, more so it won’t be able to do in Iran with or without troops on the ground. The regime didn’t fall, it ideologically got strengthened, have their martyrs now, and all those casualties will consolidate the Iranians and give ayatollahs a stronger mandate to govern and attack Israel. US army despite Trump saying they have unlimited munitions, are withdrawing Patriots from South Korea against South Koreans’ will, why? There are only 3 countries in the world that so far developed hypersonic missiles. Russia, China and Iran. (USA hopes for 2027). Damages in Israel are not much reported. Two US radar systems in the American bases in the neighborhood countries, each worth more than 1 billion, got destroyed. The cost of war, already 20 billion, each day adding 1 more billion. Number of injured US soldiers not reported. Gas prices skyrocketing and soon prices of goods and services will follow. It already looks like a failed operation. Big mistake. Main objective – fall of the regime – big fail. And hey, here come back the Democrats as the main reward for this stupidity. Turning from MAGA to MIGA will have such cosequences. Was it Epstein files and blackmail from Israel or perhaps Christian Zionists around Trump the reason for this war? There was nothing in it strategically for the USA. What’s the other explanation…That’s I think a sad reality we’re in.

    In Poland, the biggest US ally in Europe, over 70% citizens view this Trump’s move negatively. How bad it must be in across the globe…

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    1. With respect Pawel, comparing Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq and other “nation-building” efforts to Trump’s method is like comparing apples to porcupines. He is not interested in occupations…that turn into quagmires. Remove the threat, then leave it to the locals to determine their own future. That is his way. It is a way that has not previously been used by the US. Unexpected complications may arise…but this is a completely different paradigm. It is exactly the think I warned about in the second segment of this piece. You cannot assess how a completely different paradigm will work by expecting it to be like the old paradigm. And assuming it will operate by the same rules when it clearly has no use for those old ways will blind you to what is happening before your very eyes.

      And it is just a fact that when a completely new fundamental method is introduced, people (particularly in the existing establishment) pooh pooh and ridicule it until it succeeds. If Trump utterly eliminates the Iranian threat, Poland will suddenly have supported it.

      On a MUCH smaller basis, I have lived this scenario. I completely rewrote the book on something on a statewide basis – and had all the “experts,” including on our side, telling me how stupid my methods were and contrary to how things should be done…until we prevailed…and suddenly people who had thrown every obstacle they could in my way were proclaiming me to be a genius and assuring me they had been with me all along. Coming up with a completely different way of doing something, even if they old way has been a uniform disaster, is a lonely thing until it works. If you have the fortitude to push through all the obstacles, you can make things MUCH better and be hailed afterward. But it also requires discipline to just smile and say thanks when all the people who were ankle-biters during the tough times assure you they were with you all along..

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      1. I just hope Charlie you are right. Yet in this war, one of the official main objectives, toppling the Iranian regime, has been removed by the Pentagon from their war objectives just after they figured out eliminating their leaders did not work as they thought it would. So no matter how it is sugarcoated, this operation is so far a failure.

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  11. My understanding of all this is Trump is targeting China through its proxies. Venezuela, Cuba and Iran are channeling goods and services for the CCP in order to target America and American interest. It’s an active “cold war” between America and China where Trump not only eliminates these proxies but turns them into America assets instead.

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    1. That is one of several primary goals. The amazing thing is that Trump is routinely killing two, three, or four birds with every stone. The idiot media, the left, and the black-pilled right do not see the fullness of what he is doing and usually don’t even pick up on even a single primary goal.

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