By Charlie Johnston
Barring a huge national convulsion between now and then, talk of a blue wave of Democratic victories coming on election day this fall are pure poppycock. Republicans will pick up a net gain of 32 seats (+/- five) in the House of Representatives and seven (+/- two) in the Senate. That is not prophecy, but pure political analysis, of the sort I used to do regularly.
The night before the last federal election, I was at the home of a prominent Christian broadcaster, who asked me what (based on my political background) I thought would happen the next day. I told him that, contrary to what everyone expected, Trump would win quite handily the next day. I said both the Democrats and the media had vastly under-estimated the public’s fury with the left’s authoritarian rule over every aspect of American life – and that its bullying tactics had deprived it of honest feedback on voter concerns. The only caveat I offered was that, back in Illinois, I used to build in a four-percent fraud rate we had to overcome and that, in 2016, I had seen more signs of massive fraud nationally than I ever had before. I estimated that a minimum of five and as much as ten million fraudulent votes would be cast…and that perhaps that was the main reason for overconfidence among leftist leaders. But it would not be enough – and that is what would shock the left to its core. As I have often said, convincing people to shut up is not the same thing as convincing them.
In 1994 I was doing radio – and predicted in March that the Republicans were a dead lock to take control of the House after 40 years in the wilderness, though I was not sure about the Senate. My fellow panelists mocked me to scorn most of the year. They weren’t laughing the day after the election.
Voters will not be responding with enthusiasm for Republicans. Rather, they will be acting in self-defense against a Democratic Party that makes it very clear it can’t wait to get back to bullying nuns, bakers, florists and all other ordinary people who just want to live their lives. It can’t wait to take back the extra money that is going into ordinary people’s paychecks and tank the economy once again. It can’t wait to start rewarding foreign regimes that want to kill Americans.
I have always analyzed national elections from the perspective of what the fundamental national narratives are – not the astroturf narratives the media tries to sell (though sometimes they are effective – mainly when people are not paying much attention). The media and the Democrats think that, by their relentless, hysterical partisan attacks, they are convincing people of their case. They are convincing people – that they are a clear and present danger to basic liberty and prosperity. Oh, but what about the special elections? Control of the Congress is almost never at stake in a special election. In Alabama, Republicans had a badly damaged candidate in the Senate race. In Pennsylvania, Republican dominance in the 18th District persuaded the GOP they could submit a nominee whose most prominent public characteristic was his deep hostility to unions – in a district whose largest single demographic was union members. The only example that shook me this last year was Democratic dominance in Virginia, which I did not see coming. Yet northern Virginia has become the home state of much of the massive federal bureaucracy – which votes overwhelmingly Democrat. Those who see themselves as rulers voted their self-interest, to extend their rule over the folksies. I do not underestimate Republican capacity for establishment fecklessness – but the Democrats make their aggressive hostility to normal people who just want to live and let live clearer and more vicious each day.
When I am involved in a race myself, my prognostications on such things are significantly impaired, but whenever I was doing it solely from a media perch, my record was better than the pollsters. I certainly sniffed out upsets a lot better and more reliably. Here’s one trick you can use. Whenever you see a busy coffee shop, go in, get a cup of coffee, pretend to read a paper, and listen to what people talk about. In coffee shops, people are talking and arguing with their buddies – without any filter of what they are “supposed” to think. When people talk to pollsters nowadays, they often fear that it is really a political organization they are talking to – and that they will be punished or harassed for saying the wrong thing. So, many lie. Since they do not fear retaliation from conservatives, but do fear harassment from the shrieking mob of ‘tolerant’ lefties, the lies all go to make them sound more left then they really are. Go sit quietly in coffee shops and listen. I do it out of habit and curiosity. Already, this last year, I have been in several in hard Democratic enclaves – and the talk in the room would send chills up the backs of those Democrats talking blue waves. In one such Democratic coffee shop, I was shocked to hear not a single word in defense of Democrats – and bitter anger against the party by all. This was before the tax cuts.
I do not have high hopes that we will get out of all these troubles without deeply violent strife. I lack confidence that much of any of the elite classes are capable of doing anything they don’t see as ultimately for their own narrow benefit. True patriotism and honor are at an all-time low. There will ultimately be a “blue wave,” a wave of grace sent from Our Lord through Our Lady on the way to the Triumph of Her Immaculate Heart. But a political blue wave this fall? Nonsense. The Democrats are going to be blasted into near irrelevance on the national scene. You heard it here first.
Carole Tomlinson asked me to convey her thanks to all of you for your help on her gofundme page. She is battling pancreatic cancer and, now, breast cancer, and she wanted you to know your generosity was a great comfort and help to her.