By Charlie Johnston
In tumultuous times of great instability, the unexpected happens routinely. Old predictive models become quickly dated. That said, I struggle to see how so many in the media and on the left can be so confident of coming triumph. I am not bothering with many of the old methods I traditionally use to analyze these things. That is not to say I am not using any evidence at all. Here are some things I look at that make me think the left’s confidence is all smoke and mirrors:
-Typically, when an incumbent president is on the ballot, his party’s primary has significantly lower turnout than the opposition party – for the obvious reason that he has no serious contest for the nomination. Yet this year, that pattern has been turned on its ear. Republicans have had greater turnout for the primaries than Democrats – and not by a little. Over 20% more Republicans have turned out to vote in primaries than Democrats. Yes, in some jurisdictions, Democrat votes have been double what they were just four years ago. The media tells you this. But what they don’t tell you is that even in most of those jurisdictions, the Republican surge has been even greater than the Democrat surge. This being the case, most of the polls showing Joe Biden thumping Trump assume about 12 points more Democrats than Republicans will show up on election day. That makes no sense at all. Now, many polls have quit releasing info on the distribution of who they are sampling at all – probably because more than a few people noticed that their assumptions give about a 35-point net advantage to Democrats that is directly contrary to what is actually happening in actual elections. Strange things may, indeed, happen on election day. But the polls are just a propaganda tool right now. I suspect this is why Democrats are pushing so hard for mail-in voting: the actual numbers look so bad for them that they are going to need more fraud than a third-world potentate to pull this off.
– It is common for the national party of an incumbent president to raise more money than that of a challenger. That advantage does NOT extend down to the level of state legislative races. Nationwide, in the last quarter, contributions to Democrat state legislative candidates have collapsed, while Republican candidates have taken in twice as much.
There are other indicators, but these are the most easily accessed, obvious and powerful. The upshot is that actual evidence does not show Democrats cruising to an easy victory: It shows them on their way to a defeat of such epic proportions that it poses an existential threat to the future of their party. This is, of course, barring vote fraud on a scale never before even imagined in this country. I don’t trust Republicans to effectively defend against vote fraud, but I do think Democrats vastly underestimate how much they are going to need to even be competitive this cycle.
The bottom line is that the fascist left is not going to go away, whatever happens. The election will reveal to us whether we continue to have a last line of defense in the executive branch or whether we will have to fight a retrograde action against an atheist, fascist, left-wing dictatorship that controls all the levers of institutional power. Ronald Reagan used to say that America is always only a generation away from the extinction of liberty. VVe are that generation.
The last week and a half I have dealt with a flood of emails. Thank you for your enthusiastic response and willingness to volunteer to make a real stand for faith, family and freedom. There has been an outpouring of people who are planning to come in from out-of-state for my talk in Limon, Colorado on Sunday, July 26th. In order to make sure that there is room for everyone, particularly those traveling from afar, please send a note to email@example.com to confirm your attendance and how many there will be coming with you. I repeat the details of the event below.
The organizational push is in a glorious whirlwind right now – separating people by region, skills, and interests. I have already gotten four acting regional coordinators in place – but have to finish the work to get them a workable database that they can use to identify, contact and deploy people in their region. The skeletal structure of the organization is being raised and the formal papers are being prepared.
Some dear folks who are older and infirm have expressed a deep desire to help. I think we will get a corps of such folks to form an ongoing prayer team in each region – and given contact information of each other so that they can do it collaboratively – particularly when a major initiative is being mounted. The old saying, Ora et Labora, (prayer and work) is our watchword as we go forward.
Sunday July 26, 2020 (12 Noon)
- Lincoln Theatre, 245 E Ave., Limon, CO
- 12:00pm: Divine Mercy Chaplet
- 12:30pm: Talk by Charlie Johnston
- 1:30pm: Lunch & Q&A Session (Lunch will be provided)
Limon is 1 hour east of Denver and 1 hour east of Colorado Springs.
Interesting history of Lincoln Theatre: http://cinematreasures.org/theaters/7595
Seats are free, but limited, so make your reservation to firstname.lastname@example.org.
If anyone coming is a videographer and could film this, please let me know at email@example.com.